Editor’s note: This article is the first in a series exploring the impacts of climate change on three of Harvard’s key natural resources and the policies that may be used to improve resiliency. Agriculture is the community’s economic base; Bare Hill Pond is a hub of recreational activity and an indicator of ecological health; forests contribute to climate change mitigation through natural carbon sequestration and storage. Each of these natural pillars faces challenges as a result of a warming climate and changing weather patterns that are especially pronounced in New England. By identifying these challenges and the plans that are already underway to address them, this series aims to provide a local perspective on climate change and its trajectory.
In 2016 Susan Conant was managing a crop of over 1,600 newly planted fruit trees at the Harvard Community Orchard on Prospect Hill Road and the weather was not cooperating. The state was in the midst of its worst drought in over 50 years and even with irrigation she was struggling to keep up with her trees’ thirst. She remembers the conditions being called a 100-year drought. But it took only four years for the extreme conditions to return. In 2020 she was once again tending a new orchard and this time the trees were not on permanent drip irrigation. She lost about half the saplings.
The past five years have been unpredictable for farmers, but may be illustrative of what is to come. Frank Carlson, owner of Carlson Orchards on Oak Hill Road, remembers the “St. Valentine’s Day massacre” in 2016. That February, a period of warm weather coaxed peach trees to bud early; then temperatures plummeted, wiping out Carlson’s entire crop. That summer severe drought conditions persisted from late June into April of the following year. In 2020, the region faced a shorter but similarly intense drought, and rain that fell came in short, heavy bouts, according to a U.S. Geological Survey report. The following summer was one of the wettest on record, posing a new set of challenges for farmers.
“All the extremes are just making it fairly difficult—but not impossible—to grow apples and berries and peaches,” said Pam Lawson, co-owner of Doe Orchards on Ayer Road.
What local farmers are noticing are not isolated events. A study by researchers from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Salem State University shows that New England’s climate is changing more rapidly than other parts of the world. The Apple Country Natural Climate Solutions Report—part of a regional project to prepare for climate change using nature-based resiliency techniques—warns that Harvard, Bolton, and Devens can expect rising temperatures, more extreme precipitation events, and other “erratic” weather patterns that may challenge the region’s agricultural community. Still, many farmers remain optimistic, and few are making significant changes to crops in anticipation of changes scientists say are inevitable.
Extreme precipitation events
According to the 2019 Massachusetts Drought Management Plan, erratic rainfall patterns have become more frequent across New England, and rising annual precipitation is only expected to increase. Most additional rainfall will be in the form of “extreme precipitation events” that heighten risk of flooding and do not replenish groundwater efficiently. This can lead to increased runoff, which, when paired with rapid evaporation from warming temperatures, worsens drought conditions when they do occur.
Heat and heavy rainfall are already impacting the health of Harvard’s orchards. Lawson has noticed an increase in pests and disease at Doe Orchards that corresponds with hotter and wetter conditions. Bitter rot is a fungus that most commonly affects apple crops in the southeastern United States—according to the UMass Amherst Extension Fruit Program—but it can quickly develop in New England orchards during extended periods of warm wet weather. It causes spots on the skin of the apple that turn to rot and eventually cause the fruit to shrivel and die. “We didn’t have too much trouble with disease in the past,” Lawson said, “but it’s become a yearly issue at this point.”
Both Lawson and Carlson said they have struggled recently with fire blight, a bacteria spread by rain and insects that stunts fruit growth and can kill entire trees. New England outbreaks used to be sporadic, but are becoming increasingly common.
Phytophthora, a type of water mold that spreads via root systems when soil is especially wet, has affected apple and Christmas trees at Doe. “That really causes the tree to suffer,” said Lawson, “They kind of limp along” and rarely recover fully.
Non-native pests
Non-native pests are also taking advantage of a warmer New England climate. Spotted wing drosophila is a type of fruit fly originally from Asia that appeared on the West Coast in 2008 and made its way to the Northeast about five years later. “That’s been driving us all crazy,” said Lawson, who has had particular trouble with the flies on her blueberry crop.
Carlson said he is working to set up a spraying system to target fire blight with new pesticides that are less harmful to the environment. “We’re eager to use them, but we hope they work,” he said, noting that the sprays are expensive.
Hotter growing seasons affect the quality of apples even when trees are healthy. Conant said that New England has a “monopoly” on McIntosh apples because the variety benefits from cold nights when they are maturing in September. “The sugars develop and you get that classic sweet, tart McIntosh,” she explained. Other popular New England varieties such as Honeycrisp also rely on colder nights to achieve the taste and texture consumers expect.
Longer summers
Longer summers also mean that Harvard farmers can now grow some apple varieties that were previously more difficult, such as Braeburn and Granny Smith that thrive off long hot summers. “We’re able to extend the growing season, possibly, and grow varieties that we weren’t able to,” said Conant. But she said she does not see a longer growing season if it comes at the expense of “quintessential” New England varieties such as McIntosh and Cortland that could eventually be lost to the heat.
Other farmers are less concerned about climate change affecting apple varieties. Carlson said he was happy with last year’s McIntosh crop. His Honeycrisp didn’t color as well as he had hoped, but he did not attribute that to weather changes. Lawson said Doe Orchards had one of its best McIntosh crops ever last season.
Harvard farmers can plan for warmer temperatures to stick around, as projections show the region will continue to warm rapidly. The Apple Country Report shows that summer temperatures in the Nashua River watershed basin averaged 68.8 degrees between 1971 and 2000, which could increase up to 9% by 2050 and 16% by 2090. The number of days that top 90 degrees each year is also expected to rise, and over a dozen each year may eventually be above 100 degrees. Similarly, the number of days that dip below freezing each winter could be cut in half by the end of the century.
Despite noticing changes in weather patterns, many of Harvard’s farmers are optimistic about the future of their farms. Kerri Green, chair of the Harvard Agricultural Committee and CSA manager at Westward Orchards on Mass. Ave., talked about the unpredictability of growing conditions year to year but said she is used to adapting with the weather. “With farming … every season has its ups and downs of challenges, and farmers have been dealing with the variations in weather and seasons and the unpredictability of just a growing season in itself forever.” She noted that some crops benefit from a longer summer and others do well in wetter conditions.
Toolkit for resiliency
Harvard’s Agricultural Climate Action Plan—a document that uses research, climate projections, and local stakeholder feedback to provide a toolkit for proactive work toward social, economic, and environmental sustainability—encourages farmers to use nature-based resiliency and regenerative practices to respond to and prepare for the impacts of climate change. Newer “resilient” soil management practices, drainage improvements and water storage, and drip irrigation systems can protect against both drought and heavy precipitation. Hail nets can protect fruit trees from storms, and integrated pest management practices can help keep crops healthy. The plan also suggests selecting crops that are more resistant to wet and dry spells.
Green was involved in creating the plan and says that Westward has implemented “best management practices” to maximize soil health and avoid erosion, though she mentioned that some techniques for adaptation can be costly upfront. Economic viability is an area of focus in the plan, which found that many farmers in the community cannot afford to implement climate mitigation and adaptation techniques. According to the report, average production expenses for farms in Worcester County increased almost 10% from 2012 to 2017, and taxes paid per farm increased 25% in the same time.
Along with his new pesticide plan, Carlson said he has implemented trickle irrigation and typically waters new trees once a week. The system draws from two ponds and three wells, which he said sets him up well in the case of a drought. Still, he said, “There’s nothing like natural rains.”
Katie Carlson Hardy adjusts hosing used for drip irrigation under Honey Crisp trellis trees. Trellis trees mature more quickly, take up less space, and bear more fruit than traditional apple trees. (Photo by Lisa Aciukewicz)
A new type of uncertainty
Green does not see climate change as the greatest issue facing the region’s agricultural community. “I’m not so worried about climate change taking out agriculture in Harvard per se. I think the biggest threat to farms is … inflation,” she said, pointing out that Massachusetts is one of the most expensive states to farm in.
Carlson still is not sure about his views on climate change, but echoed other local farmers when describing a new type of uncertainty that hangs over the agricultural community. “Here we are again, the 20th of March, and it’s pretty nice out. Is it going to go back to winter? Are we going to have more winter? I don’t know.”
More winter was in store for Harvard, as temperatures on March 28 and 29 dipped back below freezing.
Lily Robinson will graduate this spring from the University of Massachusetts Amherst with a master’s degree in public policy. She has reported for the Press, first as an intern and then as a freelancer, since the summer of 2020.
A plan for social, economic,and environmental sustainability
The Harvard Agricultural Climate Action Plan provides the community with a toolkit to work proactively toward social, economic, and environmental sustainability. The Harvard Agricultural Commission partnered with Kim Lundgren Associates and Dodson & Flinker to develop the plan, which identifies four key categories of action. It then proposes a resiliency framework that is used to break down each category by establishing goals and short-, medium-, and long-term actions. It was the first “module” of a broader Climate Action Plan, funded by a Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) grant, and it builds on the town’s MVP Plan.
—Lily Robinson
Maple sugaring faces its own challenges
Fruit is not the only local product that relies on seasonal temperatures. Shorter winters are already affecting maple syrup production in the state. The sugaring process relies on a pattern of cool nights and mild days, explained Jim Burns, owner of Harvard Maple Producers. “The freeze-thaw cycle is really the backbone of natural sap flow of the maple tree,” he said. In the past, Burns could rely on a sugaring season of about six weeks that would last through March and sometimes into the first week of April. “That really kind of seems like a rarity now,” he said. Though he’s getting a similar yield from each tap, he is able to tap fewer times as a result of a shortened season. He used to expect 90 gallons of syrup each spring; this year and last he ended up with just over 80.
Burns said some maple syrup producers are able to use a vacuum system to draw sap out of trees when the freeze-thaw pattern is absent. The process allows harvesters to get more sap from a shorter season. More northern climates where tapping used to be unusual are becoming more accommodating to sugaring and, as weather patterns continue to change, Burns wrote to the Press, “Sugar makers will need to adapt as best they can in their locations to observe their ‘micro climate’ and adjust their tapping locations to optimize good sap flow conditions and quality.”
—Lily Robinson
