Select Board member Alice von Loesecke repeated her concerns this week that the deficits forecast by the Finance Committee in its draft fiscal 2023 budget and five-year projection were too high and that the town and the schools should take steps to reduce them.
In a presentation to her colleagues on the Select Board Tuesday night, she proposed adjustments that would, like the Fincom proposal, deliver a modest surplus in fiscal 2023, but cut the deficit projected by FinCom for the following year by more than 50%—to approximately $215,000, more in line with forecasts of past years (see table below). Von Loesecke said cuts of approximately $150,000 to the fiscal 2023 omnibus spending budget would be necessary to achieve that result, along with changes to the assumptions made by FinCom about the increased spending that could be expected in fiscal 2024 through fiscal 2026.
Von Loesecke told the board she had developed her alternative budget and forecast in meetings with Finance Director Jared Mullane, Town Administrator Tim Bragan, and Assistant Town Administrator Marie Sobalvarro. Roughly a dozen attendees, including members of the School Committee and Superintendent Linda Dwight, were present for her presentation.
The Excel spreadsheet containing details of the altered budget and forecast was dated March 9; however copies were not included in the meeting packet, and the Press was unable to obtain one in time for this report. The Select Board and FinCom were scheduled to meet in a joint session March 16 to discuss their differences and attempt to achieve consensus.
Although the Harvard Charter makes the Select Board responsible for presenting a final budget to Town Meeting, the board relies on FinCom to closely scrutinize town and school budget requests, as well as the revenue projections provided by the Finance Department, and to provide an initial plan for its review. Or as Town Administrator Tim Bragan advised FinCom two weeks ago, the board typically says, in effect, “Here’s what we need to have, here’s the dollar amount … figure it out.”
If budget season can be likened to a game of tennis, then von Loesecke’s Tuesday night presentation might be characterized as a lob to FinCom Chair Jennifer Finch, whose budget assumptions she characterized two weeks ago as “ultra-conservative.” (“It’s the first time I’ve ever been called ultra-conservative,” Finch quipped in a recent interview.) With the ball back in its court, FinCom must decide whether and where to look for the approximately $150,000 in cuts that von Loesecke recommends, and reconsider as well the assumptions that led to the committee’s estimate of a $1.6 million deficit in fiscal 2026.
As with a weather forecast, the assumptions behind a budget forecast can dramatically affect its outcomes. Changes in predicted pressure and temperature can alter the expected landfall of a hurricane; and whether salaries are projected to increase 5% versus 2.5%, or the school budget to grow at 4.5% versus 3.5%, can make a huge difference. If one lowers the estimated rate of growth of such expense lines, aligning them more closely with historical trends, von Loesecke told the board, projected deficits drop accordingly.
There was little comment by other members of the Select Board, and no vote was taken on the alternative forecast. But when Select Board Chair Stu Sklar invited her to comment, School Committee Chair SusanMary Redinger urged that the schools be spared a round of cuts as they contend with rising costs and the pandemic’s lingering impact on the education of Harvard students.
“We worked really, really hard to present a budget that was doable for the town,” Redinger said. The 4% increase requested this year was appropriate given that the district has operated during fiscal 2022, the current year, with a zero percent increase. She said the schools would work with whatever number they’re given, using money in the Devens Fund if necessary. But working with a lower number would be difficult.
Discussion of the fiscal 2023 budget will continue for the next two weeks. FinCom has yet to vote on a final recommendation. A response from the committee was expected following its meeting with the Select Board March 16. This year’s budget schedule requires the committee to send its final recommendation to the Select Board before April 5, when the board must decide the budget it will present to Town Meeting.
