For all that some people (myself included) like to think that awards shows are inherently meaningless and that any attempt to select the “best” films and performances is more indicative of industry politics than artistic merit, there’s a degree of solace in the perseverance of this year’s awards season. Where last year’s Oscars are remembered as one of the last major public events before the pandemic took hold in America, this year’s ceremony feels like a hopeful return to normalcy, a sign that the movie industry might be ready to bounce back after 14 months of shuttered theaters and stumbling efforts to adapt to streaming platforms. Here are my predictions of how the academy might vote after one of the most trying years in Hollywood’s history.
Frances McDormand, Danny’s pick for best actress, in a scene from “Nomadland,” his pick for best picture. (Courtesy photos)
Best Picture: ‘Nomadland’
Chloé Zhao’s drama following a widow who takes up a nomadic lifestyle has already taken home several of the Best Picture awards from other ceremonies that often serve as predictors for Oscar night. With the Producers Guild Award and the BAFTA (the so-called British Oscar), not to mention various directing awards for Chloé Zhao and acting awards for the film’s star, Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” is the favorite going into Oscar night. That said, the Oscars have made room for surprises in recent years, like “Parasite” taking home the top award last year over favorites like “1917.” If any other movie in the running could upset “Nomadland,” it’s Lee Isaac Chung’s slice-of-life drama “Minari.”
Chloé Zhao is Danny’s choice for best director.
Chadwick Boseman.
Yuh-jung Youn in “Minari.”
Daniel Kaluuya in “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
Emerald Fennell for best original screenplay.
Best Director: Chloé Zhao, ‘Nomadland’
Just as her film has already won several Best Picture awards, Chloé Zhao has been cleaning up the prizes for directing, taking home the top prize from both the BAFTAs and the Directors Guild Awards. A win for Zhao would be historic—she would become only the second woman to win the prize, and the first woman of color—but, again, she could be upset by “Minari,” giving Lee Isaac Chung the surprise win.
Best Actor/Actress:
Chadwick Boseman, ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’
Frances McDormand, ‘Nomadland’
Continuing the streak of major awards for “Nomadland,” Frances McDormand is the favorite for the Best Actress Oscar, having won the equivalent prize at the BAFTAs. A win for McDormand would put her into the rare company of actors who have earned three Oscars (she won previously for “Fargo” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), but it’s not a sure thing—Viola Davis won the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award for her performance in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” a sign that the Oscars voting pool may be split. Davis’s co-star, the late Chadwick Boseman, is my bet for the men’s prize, not just because he won the SAG award, but also because Hollywood loves nothing more than a tribute. A posthumous award for Boseman, whose untimely death in August cut short an illustrious career, would be both a nod to Boseman’s legacy and a touching, symbolic answer to this past year of widespread grief. If anyone’s going to upset Boseman, it’s Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”), 30 years removed from the Oscar he won for “The Silence of the Lambs.”
Best Supporting Actor/Actress:
Yuh-jung Youn, ‘Minari’
Daniel Kaluuya, ‘Judas and the Black Messiah’
Perhaps the most certain Oscar of the night belongs to Yuh-jung Youn, whose performance as the easygoing, smack-talking grandmother Soonja in “Minari” has earned her (deservedly) a laundry list of awards, including SAG and BAFTA prizes. Daniel Kaluuya looks a good bet for the men’s award for his performance as civil rights leader Fred Hampton in “Judas and the Black Messiah,” although his inclusion in the supporting category is a head-scratcher, given that he gets top billing in the movie. Still, an Oscar is an Oscar, and Kaluuya is as talented and deserving an actor as any.
Best Original/Adapted Screenplay:
Emerald Fennell, ‘Promising Young Woman’
Chloé Zhao, ‘Nomadland’
With a BAFTA and a Writers Guild prize already, Emerald Fennell is looking like a safe bet for the Original Screenplay award on Sunday for her debut film, “Promising Young Woman,” which also garnered her nominations for Best Director and Best Picture. The Adapted Screenplay award, on the other hand, is a toss-up. “The Father” won the BAFTA, but “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” took the Writers Guild award; the only screenplay nominated at both ceremonies was “The White Tiger.” On nothing more than a whim, I’ll throw my guess behind Chloé Zhao and hope, for the sake of my middling predictions record, that the Academy goes all in on “Nomadland.”
Danny Eisenberg grew up in Harvard and has been reviewing movies for the Harvard Press since 2010. He lives and works in Denver, Colorado.
