The Montachusett Regional Planning Commission has completed an analysis showing that new commercial and residential development under Harvard’s current zoning would increase net revenue for the town, though at least one Planning Board member disputed the findings. MRPC representatives John Hume and Jason Stanton and consultants John Mullin and Zenia Kotval presented the study to the Planning Board at the board’s Jan. 25 meeting.
The study estimates that Harvard has built about 30% of its total capacity for residential housing—4,028 new homes could be built in addition to the 1,692 existing ones—and half of its total capacity for commercial development, leaving room for an additional 782,000 square feet of commercial space. According to Director of Community and Economic Development Chris Ryan, “The idea was to determine what the result would be if Harvard was fully built out using the current zoning.”
The study uses a method called the proportional valuation technique, which estimates the characteristics of future development using the average numbers for Harvard’s current development. “This is a living, breathing document. You can play with the constraints to see what the impact would be,” said Stanton. The Planning Board hopes that it will be able to predict the fiscal impact of any future zoning changes by varying the values in the spreadsheet (such as state aid, amount of developable land, or average home value).
The study estimates that fully building out Harvard’s residential housing would increase annual revenue by a net $10,152,643. New revenue would be $69,530,036: $47,242,197 from property tax, $16,598,522 from miscellaneous sources, and $5,689,317 in state school aid. New costs would total $59,377,392: $49,045,329 for schools and $10,332,063 for other services.
The study also estimates that building out the town’s commercial capacity would increase annual revenue by a net $954,660. New revenue would be an estimated $1,126,169: $850,638 from property taxes and $275,531 from miscellaneous sources. The town would incur $171,510 in new service costs.
According to Mullin, Harvard’s situation, in which new housing development is revenue positive, is unique. It is made possible by Harvard’s high house values: $635,000, relative to an average value of $290,000 for houses in the region.
Planning Board member Jane Biering questioned the conclusion that new housing would pay for itself. She objected to the study’s assumption that new Harvard residents would have the same number of children as existing ones (1,048 children across 1,692 households). She contended that new families moving to town generally have one or more children, which is far more than the .62 average the study uses. Demonstrating the study’s flexibility, Kotval updated the spreadsheet with a new value of two children per new household, which showed a net loss of revenue in that case.
According to Hume, MRPC paid for the study as part of the District Local Technical Assistance program, and it had a value of $20,000. He said it would have been possible to perform a more rigorous study, but doing so would have cost as much as $100,000, which is more than the MRPC was able to budget for Harvard.
