This year’s Academy Awards may feel scrappier than usual. First there was the hosting snafu: The Academy’s choice of emcee, Kevin Hart, lost the gig after some homophobic tweets resurfaced, for which Hart refused to apologize. The Academy never found a replacement, so the show goes on, without a host. There were also some false starts planning the awards themselves—the Academy created a Best Popular Film category, then scrapped the idea; it announced it would present various technical awards off the air, then walked back that plan when cinematographers and editors pointed out, justifiably, that their categories are what define the medium of film. But the Academy’s disorder is fitting for this year’s nominees, a crop of films and performances that represent an extremely broad spectrum of genres and styles (and quality). Predicting winners has always been difficult, but this year it feels especially like drawing names from a hat.
A scene from “Roma,” Danny’s pick in three categories: Best Picture, Best Director (Alfonso Cuarón), and Best Original Screenplay. (Courtesy photos)
Best Picture: “Roma”
“Roma” would be a historic winner, both as a streaming-original release as well as a foreign-language film, but a win for “Bohemian Rhapsody” or “Green Book” wouldn’t be surprising. “Bohemian Rhapsody” is already something of a Hollywood miracle—the movie’s numerous delays, scandal-plagued director, and genre (most biopics are terrible) all conspired against it, so it’s a triumph that the movie was even watchable, let alone a hit (whose star is the Best Actor favorite, to boot). And then there’s “Green Book,” which fulfills Hollywood’s recurring fantasy of solving racism; the movie already took top honors from the Producers Guild, so it enters the Oscars with momentum.
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
A surprising list of nominees for this award—who would have guessed that the Academy would snub Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) in favor of little-known Polish director Pawel Pawlikowski (“Cold War”)?—leaves Alfonso Cuarón with a good chance to win, and deservedly so. If anyone can upset, it would be Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”). The Academy has also occasionally given out trophies to late-career filmmakers who have historically struck out at the Oscars, so don’t count out Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”) either.
Best Actor/Actress:
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody;”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody.”
Glenn Close in “The Wife.”
Mahershala Ali in “Green Book.”
Regina King in “If Beale Street Could Talk.”
On the men’s side, Rami Malek is the runaway favorite, taking both the BAFTA (commonly referred to as the British Oscars) and the Screen Actors Guild award for his portrayal of Freddie Mercury; expect an acceptance speech full of contractually obligated name drops. Meanwhile, nobody on the women’s side has had a similar sweep this awards season, which works to Glenn Close’s advantage; after decades as a runner-up (this is her seventh Oscar nomination), she stands to benefit from the Academy’s tendency to give out awards as compensation. If anyone can upset her, it’s Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”), but the prize is Close’s to lose.
Best Supporting Actor/Actress
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book;” Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Mahershala Ali has already taken several awards for his performance as a classical pianist touring the American South and looks poised to join the exclusive club of two-time Oscar winners (his first coming for 2016’s “Moonlight”). Meanwhile, the Supporting Actress race is a toss-up; will Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz’s dueling performances in “The Favourite” cancel each other out with Academy voters? Will the Academy finally let Amy Adams (“Vice”), now on her sixth nomination, win something? That would be nice, but my money is on Regina King, who took the Golden Globe over Adams, Stone, and Weisz. Granted, the Globes aren’t often a good predictor of Oscar success (the voting bodies don’t overlap at all), but the corresponding Actors Guild award doesn’t offer much insight, having gone to Emily Blunt
(“A Quiet Place”), who isn’t even in the mix for the Oscars.
Best Original Screenplay/Adapted Screenplay
“Roma”; “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” with Richard E. Grant and Melissa McCarthy is Danny’s favorite for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Another Oscar whose nominees don’t include the corresponding guild’s winner is the original screenplay award (the Writers Guild award went to Bo Burnham’s “Eighth Grade”). In the absence of a frontrunner, here’s hoping for another win for “Roma,” but this could be where the Academy rewards “Green Book” or “The Favourite” if those films get shut out elsewhere. Meanwhile, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” took the Guild’s adapted screenplay award, so it enters the Oscars as a frontrunner, but bigger names like “BlacKkKlansman” and “A Star Is Born” offer some competition, especially since those movies likely won’t have other major awards on the night.
Danny Eisenberg, a Bromfield graduate, lives and works in Denver, Colorado.
