After last year’s wrong-envelope snafu at the Oscars, the only thing I feel safe predicting about this year’s ceremony is that at least one presenter will make a show of proving that they’re holding the correct envelope. As for the awards themselves, no one film has emerged as a clear favorite for a sweep, or even for the night’s biggest prize. All I can hope for, as usual, is that the Academy will honor the daring and bold (not to mention crowd-pleasing) work done in 2017, and not resign itself to predictably ingratiating prestige fare, as it has done repeatedly in the past (looking at you, “The King’s Speech”).
A scene from “The Shape of Water,” Danny’s reluctant prediction for Best Picture. (Courtesy photos)
Best Picture: ‘The Shape of Water’
Gosh, I hope I’m wrong. Guillermo del Toro’s underwhelming and hokey “The Shape of Water” has the most Oscar nominations, with 13, and enters the night having taken top honors from the Producers Guild, so a Best Picture win for the Cold War romance would be unsurprising, albeit dull and disappointing. Martin McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” also carries some momentum into the night, with five BAFTA awards, but in the absence of “Blade Runner 2049,” my favorite film of the year, I’m crossing my fingers for an upset victory for Jordan Peele’s astounding directorial debut, “Get Out,” which is still impressive and memorable a full year after its release.
Gary Oldman as Churchill.
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, ‘Darkest Hour’
Best Actress: Frances McDormand, ‘Three Billboards’
Gary Oldman is looking like the favorite for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour,” with a BAFTA and a SAG award under his belt already. Of course, Timothée Chalamet’s breakout performance in “Call Me by Your Name” would be a far more interesting choice, so consider my fingers crossed for an upset.
Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand.
The Best Actress race is looking similarly certain at this point, as Frances McDormand has picked up major awards already for her performance in “Three Billboards.” An upset victory for Saoirse Ronan for “Lady Bird” would be a pleasant surprise, but then, accolades are never wasted on McDormand.
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, ‘Three Billboards’
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, ‘I, Tonya’
Allison Janney.
The races for supporting performances also seem pretty well settled at this point. On the men’s side, Sam Rockwell has been collecting awards for his work in “Three Billboards,” while on the women’s side, Allison Janney has been doing the same for her performance in “I, Tonya,” and nothing would indicate that Oscar night will be any different. And sure, Rockwell and Janney are both talented, well-liked actors who, like Frances McDormand, are completely deserving of their accolades, but still, it’s a shame not to see Armie Hammer (“Call Me by Your Name”) or Catherine Keener (“Get Out”) even land nominations when they had some of the most memorable and affecting performances of the year.
Best Original Original Screenplay: ‘Get Out’
Best Adapted Screenplay: ‘Call Me by Your Name’
A scene from “Get Out,” nominated for Best Original Screenplay.
I’m going to hang my hat on “Get Out” for the Original Screenplay Oscar, and if I’m wrong, it’ll be the Academy’s loss. Of course, now that Jordan Peele’s script has taken home the Writers Guild prize, it’s by no means a dark horse contender. Its only real competition is Martin McDonagh’s screenplay for “Three Billboards,” which, if it were to take the Oscar, would strengthen that movie’s overall case for Best Picture over “The Shape of Water.” Meanwhile, things are all but certain on the Adapted Screenplay side of things, with James Ivory’s “Call Me by Your Name” script already taking home the Writers Guild and BAFTA awards in the category, and deservedly so.
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, ‘The Shape of Water’
Gosh, I hope I’m wrong (again). I hope Jordan Peele takes the directing Oscar. Greta Gerwig would be a fine choice, too. Even Christopher Nolan would be a better choice than del Toro, even though “Dunkirk” was generally an unwelcome piece of filmmaking last year. But the Academy loves its guilt trip awards (remember when Al Pacino won his Oscar for “Scent of a Woman”?), and its neglect of “Pan’s Labyrinth” back in 2006 might lead voters to pick del Toro. And what a waste that would be. It’s almost like award ceremonies are driven by politics that have little or nothing to do with artistic merit—crazy, right?
Danny Eisenberg, a Bromfield graduate, lives and works in Denver, Colorado.
