This Sunday will mark the first Academy Awards ceremony of the Trump era, but it remains unclear how national politics will influence the prizes. Last week, the Grammys shied away from its more political nominees, leading to immediate criticism, including from the night’s big winner: Adele, accepting the Album of the Year award, announced onstage that the award should have gone to Beyoncé. So the big question of the Oscars is, how much will the Academy use its big night to affirm its solidarity with progressive causes? I’ve done my best to guess how the Academy will vote, but I should add a disclaimer: I’ve been wrong before, quite recently, in guessing how people would vote. So on Oscar night, as with every day for the next four years, expect the unexpected.
Damien Chazelle is a contender for Best Director. (Courtesy photos)
Emma Stone is favored to be named Best Actress for her role in “La La Land.”
Casey Affleck is a nominee for Best Actor for his role in “Manchester by the Sea.”
Viola Davis is favored to win the Best Supporting Actress award for her work in “Fences.”
Mahershala Ali is a favorite among Supporting Actor nominees for his role in “Moonlight.”
Best Picture
The biggest question mark of the night is, naturally, the biggest award of the night. The Best Picture race is coming down to Damien Chazelle’s dreamy musical “La La Land” and Barry Jenkins’ coming-of-age drama “Moonlight,” with the former representing technically ambitious, highly entertaining, but adamantly apolitical Hollywood glamor, and the latter representing powerful social commentary that speaks to this political moment. Despite a compelling case for “Moonlight,” the momentum favors “La La Land,” given its record-tying 14 total nominations and top honors from BAFTA (the so-called British Oscars), the Producers Guild, and the Directors Guild.
Best Director
This is, rightfully, a tight three-way race among Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, and Kenneth Lonergan (“Manchester by the Sea”); all three made ambitious, striking films, which are all completely different from one another. My money’s on Chazelle, but an upset here, particularly in favor of Jenkins, would be neither especially surprising nor undeserved. This is an unusually strong crop of directors (rounding out the category are Mel Gibson for “Hacksaw Ridge” and Denis Villeneuve for “Arrival”), so with the possible exception of Gibson, any of the nominees could justifiably walk away with the Oscar.
Best Actor and Actress
In the female category, Emma Stone (“La La Land”) is the favorite, as she should be, but if anyone might steal the award, it’s Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”), who has won various critics’ awards for her performance as a rape victim tracking down her rapist. But given the unbelievable exclusion of Amy Adams (“Arrival”), a split vote favoring Huppert is unlikely. The prize is Stone’s to lose.
On the male side, Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) looks poised to take the award. If anyone can challenge him, it’s Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”), but the Academy virtually always prefers poignant dramatic work over charming comedic work. And this is hardly a case of Oscar-bait; Affleck’s performance was impressive and moving, so he’ll likely take the prize.
Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Perhaps no one is as strong a lock as Viola Davis is in the Supporting Actress category. Her work in “Fences” has earned her honors from BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild, not to mention a couple dozen other critics’ awards.
Meanwhile, Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) is the favorite among the Supporting Actor nominees. Lucas Hedges has received too little notice for his performance in “Manchester by the Sea,” so an upset in his favor would be a pleasant surprise. That said, Ali did equally impressive work, delicately handling a difficult character, so he’s certainly deserving of the award. Additionally, if the Academy sides with “La La Land” for Best Picture honors, voters may be more inclined to compensate “Moonlight” with an award for Ali.
Best Screenplay
Of the original screenplays, the race is between Chazelle’s “La La Land” and Lonergan’s “Manchester by the Sea.” Usually, the Writers Guild of America award is a good predictor of the Oscar winner, but not this year; “Moonlight,” which won the WGA award for Best Original Screenplay, is nominated for the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar, so it won’t compete with Chazelle and Lonergan’s scripts. Meanwhile, the adapted screenplays (of which “Arrival” won the WGA prize) now have to compete with Barry Jenkins’ screenplay. As a result, “Moonlight” is a favorite for the Best Adapted Screenplay award, while the Best Original Screenplay award seems to be up for grabs. I’ll flip a coin and guess that Chazelle will take the award, bolstering the haul for “La La Land.”
Danny Eisenberg, a Bromfield School graduate,
lives and works in Denver, Colorado.
