Despite the rain that fell earlier this week, Harvard is having an unusually dry spring this year. Tuesday’s showers marked the first recorded rainfall for Harvard all month, totaling just .02 inches of rain received so far in May, a month that, on average, receives 4.06 inches. Farmers and firefighters alike have been noticing the lack of precipitation, and some are starting to wonder: How bad is it going to get?
“No matter who you are, you should be nervous,” said Chris Green of Westward Orchards, where he’s noticing a slower leaf-out this year becuse of the dry conditions. Frank Carlson of Carlson Orchards agreed and said he’s watching the radar very closely, daily. “Showers are going north of us and south of us, but we’re not getting anything. We haven’t had the flooding rains we’d all like to see. They just aren’t there right now.”
Blue Hill Observatory reports it recorded significantly less precipitation in March and April than usual. In March, it recorded 2.33 inches less rain than normal and 1.22 inches less than normal in April. According to Weather Underground, Harvard has received even less rain than Blue Hill, with precipitation deficits of 2.86 inches less than normal in March and 2.57 inches less than normal in April. Since the beginning of spring on March 20, Harvard and the surrounding area have received just 2.06 inches of rain, during a season that usually records more than four inches of rain per month and is one of the wettest times of year.
“Right now it hasn’t impacted us—yet,” said Carlson. “But [with precipitation] below normal since March, it’s coming at a bad time of year. Temperature and dryness do have an effect on [the early stage of apple growing]. In three to four weeks, we’ll be really able to tell.”
Less water than you might expect
But what about all that snow? Just a few weeks after the looming piles of snow have finally melted, it seems ridiculous to be worried about a water shortage. But the winter’s record-breaking 111 inches of snow actually brought less water to the area than one might expect. That’s because the snow water equivalent (SWE), which describes the number of inches of snow needed to equal one inch of water, was unusually high.
Blue Hill Observatory Program Director Don McCasland put it this way: “A common SWE ratio for Harvard is 1:12, which means for every inch of water you’d need a foot of snow. This year, the snow ratios were 1:16 or higher. We had multiple high-ratio storms, with super light and fluffy snow, and it didn’t have as much water in it. That’s an example of climate change.”
Not yet a drought
Although the National Weather Service has not yet declared a drought for this area, McCasland called the lack of precipitation “a serious water situation.” Drought status does not yet apply because groundwater levels have not been reduced to drought levels.
“But,” he continued, “it is something that is being looked at very, very closely. Unless we get some significant rainfall in the near future, it will be deemed a drought.”
Farmers and backyard gardeners are already taking note of the unseasonably dry conditions. Those looking to grow plants from seed have had to water regularly, since seeds won’t germinate without sufficient moisture. And the leaf-out, which had a delayed start because of cold weather in March, has progressed slowly. “Leaves that normally would be fully grown are still immature,” said McCasland, noting that this can delay plant maturity and result in smaller fruit size.
Agricultural delays aren’t the only impacts of hot, dry spring weather. Fire Chief Rick Sicard emphasized fire danger in these conditions. “Just the other day we had a brush fire in the median on Route 2 and it spread across the highway, from a cigarette thrown out a window. With these dry conditions fires can spread very fast.”
Recently there have been a number of “red flag” days, a designation set by the National Weather Service that indicates extreme fire risk. The combination of brown leaves, dead grass, and wind makes fires that start in these conditions difficult to control because they burn so fast and hot.
“On red flag days, which we’ve had a few in the past month, there’s no open burning whatsoever, not even cooking fires, just because of how extremely dangerous it is,” he said.
Sicard asked that residents call the dispatch center to let them know if they do plan on having a cooking fire, even when the conditions are not so extreme. That way, he said, “If we get a call if someone smells smoke, they will just send an officer out. If there are no known cooking fires, they might send the whole department out.”
Practice conservation, reduce risk
Until the trees are fully leafed out and the grass greens up, the fire risk will likely remain elevated, and without multiple inches of rainfall, Harvard’s precipitation deficit will continue.
In terms of water use, McCasland says now is the time to develop conservative habits. “Especially in towns that are served by reservoirs and wells, everyone should always be conserving water year-round,” recommended McCasland, because conserving water only in the summer, when need and use are highest, is not sufficient to maintain a healthy water table year-round.
For now, farmers like Carlson and Green continue to watch the skies and hope for the best. They hesitated to guess at what the overall impact of the dry spring could be on this year’s apple harvest. “It’s still hard to say,” said Green. “There are apples out there on the trees. They want to start growing; they just need the rain.”
