Lupita Nyong’o (left) is a choice for Best Supporting Actress in “12 Years a Slave.” The movie is a favorite for Best Picture, and the screenplay is up for Best Adapted Screenplay. (Courtesy photo)
This Sunday’s Oscar award ceremony will be the fourth since I started writing movie reviews, but I’ve found that I care less about who wins this time than I have in the past. This is because, having seen most of the big contenders, I know that any of them would be perfectly deserving winners. 2013 was a very good year for movies, so it’s not as important to me to guess the winners among them as it is to find a way to watch the ones I still haven’t seen. Here, nevertheless, are the ones I think will walk away with some solid gold hardware on Sunday.
Best Picture: “12 Years a Slave.” Steve McQueen’s slavery epic has been lauded since its fall release, and with good reason. The film is smartly written, beautifully filmed, powerfully acted, and deals with an important topic candidly and fearlessly. Its biggest competition is probably Alfonso Cuarón’s outer space masterpiece “Gravity,” which will probably clean up in the technical categories but has relatively little chance at the night’s top prize. Frankly, if the award goes to either of them, or to David O. Russell’s “American Hustle” or Jean-Marc Vallee’s “Dallas Buyers Club,” I’ll be happy.
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity.” This race is going to come down to Cuarón and McQueen, in all likelihood. And while McQueen is looking like a lock for Best Picture, I think the Academy will give Alfonso Cuarón the director award for making a movie most people couldn’t even imagine trying to make. “Gravity” is the new “2001” or “Blade Runner,” and Cuarón certainly has proved himself a master of the craft. Now it’s up to the Academy to reward him for it.
Jared Leto (left) and Matthew McConaughey are nominated for Best Supporting Actor and Best Actor respectively for their roles in “Dallas Buyers Club.” (Courtesy photo)
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club.” McConaughey famously turned around a career of cheap roles, and “Dallas Buyers Club” is the proof of his success. There was no one else this year so likable and so detestable, so courageous and so unassuming. It was a terrific role he threw himself into entirely, and the Academy is likely going to give him the award. The only other contender I wish would receive more notice is Christian Bale, whose performance in “American Hustle” quietly held that movie together.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine.” As usual, Amy Adams is likely going to get one-upped on Oscar night. Her performance opposite Christian Bale in “American Hustle” was one of my favorite performances all year, but Cate Blanchett has won several key awards in the lead-up to the Oscars. She’s a safe bet for the Best Actress race in her role as a fallen socialite staying with her sister.
Cate Blanchett is up for Best Actress for her role in “Blue Jasmine.” (Courtesy photo)
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club.” Like his co-star McConaughey, Jared Leto threw himself into a powerful and difficult role. Leto then stole the show, making audiences care about Rayon, a transsexual AIDS patient, the way they would care about a close friend. The other nominees have all received a decent amount of praise, but I doubt if any of them have had enough impact on the Academy to pull votes away from Leto.
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave.” Nyong’o’s role as a slave who must suffer the perversely romantic advances of her owner begins quietly, but over the course of “12 Years a Slave” becomes louder and more desperate. In all, it’s one of the most, if not the most, powerful performances anyone gave all year. This is perhaps the only award I would be disappointed being wrong about, especially since the other main contender is Jennifer Lawrence, whose performance in “American Hustle” was entertaining, but not nearly as show-stopping as Nyong’o’s.
Best Screenplay: “12 Years a Slave,” adapted; “Her,” original. Spike Jonze has won about a dozen awards for his screenplay for “Her,” including the WGA award, which is often a predictor of Oscar success. At this point, I don’t even know which other script could challenge. On the adapted side, John Ridley will likely walk away with the award for “12 Years a Slave,” thanks to an understated and powerful script. On a side note, while I’d love to see British comedian Steve Coogan win a major American award, his script for “Philomena” is probably not what will do the trick. However, I do hope the nomination will inspire more Americans to check out his work.
Danny Eisenberg is a 2010 graduate of the Bromfield School and a student at the University of Pennsylvania. Last year he had a perfect score in predicting Oscar winners in the top eight categories.
